BAY Ntwks (under House) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : BAY Ntwks (under House)

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To: Bosco who wrote (5073)	4/2/1998 7:15:00 PM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (1) of 6980

Thread: Just popped in before bed at 00.55 a.m. here in Europe. Steeled myself for a good dose of the blues from this thread and was pleasantly surprised by the calm, even tone. The market's reaction to SV shows that there is skittishness among shareholders, more likely retailers and smaller MM. SV touched a nerve. What I have been mulling over is the SV statement that this quarter's revenues will be more than the 10% lower than previous quarter than House has predicted. In the recent cc with analysts, when House was asked by, I think Goldman Sachs, whether this 10% figure was at risk, he said no. What does the SV guy know that House doesn't? Could someone comment on the SV figures compared with the figures suggested by other analysts just after the cc? My rough impression is that they are not worse than the others, not worse than those on which a BUY or Accumulate recommendation was based by some other houses (although two downgraded to a hold or neutral). Remember the share price went up after the cc. In general, I agree with Paul; in this short period before earnings there is heightened nervousness. "News" or confidently stated "opinion" or rumour can exagerate share price movement in either direction. Going back to an earlier Paul posting, I do not think that the success of the Accelar sales program can be judged in the first two weeks after earnings just because House said he would have liked two weeks or more to meet this quarter's targets. If the acceptance period is longer than thought one might very well see a slow fuse followed by exponential sales as those who like the demo model put in multiple orders and as business not in the first wave of demos accept the product more quickly than those in the first wave. I hope this is not viewed as clutching at straws, I'm simply trying to work with the hard information we have and understand the thinking of those in the market who have sold. Goodnight - have a good confab. Victor

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