Jonathon,
My broker is Fidelity, and they always seem to be able to come up with difficult to find shorts. They really work at it (they must poll other firms). In any event, at this juncture, I wish FIDO had been unsuccessful in their efforts!
AMZN could as easily trade at 295 or 195 as at 95. None of these trading prices bear any relation to reality anyway.
This all seems rather like a Ponzi scheme to me. Longs and short squeezes drive up the price. The shorts lose along the way, the longs win. At some juncture, the last long holding the bag loses, because when it drops, the drop will be furious. At that point, the longs will lose and the shorts (whomever among them was able to short at or near the top, or short below and hang on) will win.
The analysts know full well that AMZN will continue to lose money and that, when it earns money (if ever) margins will be razor thin.
The analysts also know full well that, on day X, this stock will be trading at about 10.
My problem is that -- as valuation is totally irrelevant -- it is impossible to know whether the top is 95 or 195 or 295. Impossible. That being the case, going short (or long, for that matter) is as good as putting all of your money on red, or black, at the roulette table.
I've got my money on the table now, but give it a few more points and I'm going to have to count my losses. (Given my timing, that will be just before a top).
Gary Korn |
