First, let me preface: I am short ZONA. Not much, only 500 shares.
Second, let's assume ZONA is not a fraud and Mr. Podoloski is not a crook. Let's assume everyone at ZONA is working hard to do the right thing.
Third, let's assume Vasomax has some very modest efficacy. (I am not a physician or pharmalogical PhD, but even the permabulls on Vasomax seem to agree that the effectiveness is rather limited)
Fourth, it may be a year or more before Vasomax receives FDA approval, given the scenarios suggested. A year is an eternity in this business. Product life cycles are truncating at a rapid pace, particularly in this industry. Viagra, or Muse (or Caveject?), will be the products of choice for the next nine months.
Fifth, the marketing in Mexico is an absolute joke.
Sixth, why would anyone invest (or hold) in this stock now? There is no compelling reason for it to move up in the near term. It is simply dead money at best. Even if one is really a believer, ZONA won't do anything on the upside for quite some time. At the same time the market is turning 40% annual gains. The opportunity cost is great.
Seventh, the civility on this board is dearly lacking (I'm guilty myself for rubbing Dauntless.) Although Mr. Wexler, I believe, can identify stocks that are "overvalued," his manner is, unfortunately, confrontational. On the other hand, the bulls on this board are more than eager to pick up the gauntlet and get equally ugly.
Finally, let's skip over all the medical smoke-and-mirrors and get to the business model. If it will be a year (or more) till Vasomax gets approval, how can they possibly be a viable player in this market? To little too late. Given the cash burn, can they even last that long?
drsvelte |
