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Non-Tech : Simula (SMU)

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To: Francois H. Gaston who wrote (1059)	4/2/1998 11:18:00 PM
From: Francois H. Gaston	Read Replies (1) of 1671

Crash coming?: Here is a table I created, after reading the story of past crashes over the last 3 centuries. members.aol.com Not a perfect table but an attempt to demonstrate that, in the USA, we are not even close to a market crash … la 1987 or 1929 ... They are many points to fulfill before a real crash can occur and that is why I am fully invested. This Spring we are just at risk of a market correction which could be followed by very brisk buying on the dip. We have literally no volatility these days. I believe that we could enter a euphoric phase this Spring and then, and only then, this could set us up for a crash. In the meantime this is time to speculate and gamble (just IMHO, of course) because it is in a euphoric phase that great money can be made. Japan crashed a few years back and it is probably going to experience something that could be much more serious (deflation and too much money being printed).... this could unfold very shortly, while Indonesians are getting really discouraged. Then this malaise could reach our shores, in the US. Just a guess. Good luck to all Gaston

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