Bob,
What's the 'order imabalances'? Is this Level 2 data?
Agree with your post. Long Bond at 5.84% gives
support to this 'momentum'. But shorts are climbing on
weak looking stocks, like COMS, and probably looking
for good opportunity to short the rest of the market.
In a week or so, earnings season starts, and this should
give us a good idea of direction the market will be
going.
My prediction: low earnings, stocks will go higher,
(except COMS this month)
but only if E.Asia doesn't fall apart. If
they do, we'll have another Oct. like
correction.
My personal model has 3 parameters:
1) liquidity - Will still be pretty intense this
month.
2) long bond yield - Depends on Japanese & HK stock
markets, and also whether E.Asia hits
us with a 2nd wave of bad news. Or whether economy
actually speeds up and Feds actually think of increasing
rates (hard to believe, this would mean another
quarter of good earnings - don't think so)
3) Earnings - probably not so good, with lots of
exceptions, like MSFT and KO.
Warning, this model is very crude. For more accurate
forecast, see saju chacko's 1,398 parametric
simulation.
Joe |
