<<I am here because of both and neither. The TAVA story sounds good to me. But not good enough to justify a $250m+ market cap, not by a long way.>>
I have to disagree:
7,500 CDs @ $20,000 per CD X 85% margin = 127.5M
5,000 sites remediated at $150k per site X 50% margin = 375M
Base business of 50M X 35% margin = 17.5M
Take out 40M of overhead leaves 480M.
Take out tax at 35% leaves over 300M in a war chest that can be used for an acquisition spree after Y2K.
Given that the market is 70k to 100k sites, not including utilities, and confirmed early successes (Coke, Kraft, US Mint, BMY, Cargill, etc...), those numbers may not only be feasible but also conservative.
The story is definitely worth more than $250M in market cap.
The real question concerns execution. Right now, we all know TAVA is very busy and aggressively building up its list of clients.
What we don't know are the current hard numbers - revenues, earnings, margins - that will ultimately drive market cap. Looking back even a quarter provides almost no guidance to the current financial performance of this fast moving dynamo.
Somewhere in the research thread is an $2B annual revenue estimate for the systems integration market; the very market TAVA seeks to dominate one day in the not too distant future. What's an appropriate market cap that would represent such potential? |
