My take on AAPL is that analysts are very inefficient in their
knowledge of the company and the stock. Whether it's because Apple
doesn't give them good information, or they don't follow it closely
enough, I'm not sure, but it's true.
My observation is that Analysts are not that slow to realize the
turning-around situation, but they have put too much in shorts.
If they said Apple's in good shape, then they would lose the
opportunity to cover back with lower prices. You could see from
last month's increase in shorts volume by 3m shares. Actually,
the real situation is very funny. I think they tried to pull down
the price almost everyday last month, but it continued to run up from
$20's to $27's, which ends up piling up their shorts volume. There
are going to have battle between shorts and the market trend. You
could see almost every morning, shorts place $27 1/8 at ask and
the bidding was $27 1/4. This is obvious that shorts are eager to
pull down the price as possible as they could. Usually, it lasts
about 30 minutes every morning and then the price stabilizes.
The only way to kill the shorts is the excellent Q2 reports due
within 2 weeks. By that time, most of them will give up by covering
back with the prices they wouldn't want to pay.
Phil |
