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Biotech / Medical : AMLN (DIABETES DRUGS)
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To: Henry Niman who wrote (1294)4/3/1998 11:21:00 AM
From: David Bogdanoff  Read Replies (1) of 2173
 
HN:

I read the press announcements regarding the JNJ pullout and lack of pramlintide efficacy was certainly not given as a reason by anybody.
The pullout after a large increased investment subsequent to the disappointing clinical trials results were known has all the earmarks of a corporate business strategy review, and is not consistent with lack of efficacy as the primary reason.

There is no question that the clinical trial result were disappointing and therefore it is logical that Amylin would state that further clinical trial results would be needed to attract a partner. I understand this to mean that Amylin wants to attract a partner under the most favorable terms, i.e. not give the company away. Obviously, Amylin expects that future clinical data would be favorable and enable them to better negotiate. Please note that a non-statistically significant result in the primary indication for type II patients does not equate to "lack of efficacy". In this case it appears to mean poorly designed/analyzed clinical trials, a topic I have posted on previously. The type I results are statistically significant and that
suggests efficacy. I would add that no one should have expected block-bluster results in this type of disease, especially when it is taken in combination with a powerful agent like insulin. The effects are subtle and easily swamped by insulin, and so extensive practical experience is needed in order to optimize clinical results.

For those who are concerned about equity dilution, Amylin shareholder got a big reverse earning dilution when JNJ pulled out, and that should make the pain of a possible future equity dilution go away.

David
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