Bill, Cheryl, (EDIT)
>>A related question is at what point TAVA can no
longer service new customers.<<
Exactly - see my post 14012, I think my estimates are fair to generous.
>>It is possible that TAVA could gain long-term market share in their base
industry from their Y2K reputation<<
The answer is definitely yes, but limited by the point above. Their existing (with acquisitions) business seems to be worth about $40m in revenues - it is quite a low base to start from.
>> I think it is very optimistic to believe that all the Y2K fixes will be completed in
two years. This may be more applicable to COBOL shops than TAVA. (If your
manufacturing systems stay down for months, you are probably out of business.<<
This where Cheryl and I disagree so much... as I see it, you have to fix the manufacturing kit within a short time, or as you say, you are out of business. Hence the remediation must be done quickly or not at all. Therefore not much will be fixed after, say April 2000. How practical is it (and how do you do it exactly?) to 'band-aid' a controller, or a CNC machine, or an injection unit? I have never heard a practical explanation of how you could do this.
The reality IMO is that in 90% ++ of cases, plants will have to find out what has failed and fix it asap.
And John Jenkins implication is he does not think there will be much business either (ref shedding people in 2001), see 14012
It is an interesting story anyway.
OT: Bill, do I remember you from the QDEL board when I was giving Howard Pump'n'Dump Schellenberg a hard time? |
