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Technology Stocks : Loral Space & Communications

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To: Larry L who wrote (2461)	4/3/1998 1:12:00 PM
From: JMD	Read Replies (2) of 10852

Larry, thank you. But don't be hard on my friend Maurice: what we would we all do on slow days without reports from the galaxy and other exotic lands only travelled by Mr. Winn? I think his rants and raves are priceless, wouldn't miss 'em! Your comment about 2nd generation adds to both constellations is a damned good one, and reminds me that my little dueling steel mills analogy will have only temporary validity. But the second generations have additional significance: (1) MOT has announced that their 2nd gen will include CDMA in addition to TDMA. As explained to me by others more technically gifted (which includes anyone on the planet who knows which end of a screw driver to use), TDMA is "power hungry" meaning that the on board power supplies need to be blasting away day and night regardless of system demand. CDMA tends to go with the flow, kicking in when call volume is heavy, and powering down in the opposite situation. Since power conservation is absolutely critical for the birds, this is a tremendous advantage for CDMA. In addition of course, CDMA permits each transponder to carry more bits and bytes as previously discussed ad nauseam. As to why CDMA has this power advantage over TDMA, consult the nuclear physicist of your choice as I haven't the faintest clue. But it does lead me to wonder if this explains why the 10K's from each company have that average life expectancy differential--5 years for an I* bird, more like 7 for a G* bird? Idle speculation on my part. (2) readware has argued that LOR and MOT (not to mention their respective bankers) would not have almost instantly got into a fight for slotting rights and started 2nd gen work if the demand for 1st gen transponders hadn't caught them (very happily) off guard. Which is to say of course that you don't start building your second steel mill unless you can already see (and have hard evidence in hand) that all the potential output from mill #1 is spoken for. I find this line of reasoning very persuasive (not to mention outrageously bullish). And while I will go down with the ship in steadfastly maintaining the inherent, overwhelming economic and technological superiority of the G* constellation v. Brand X, the evidence seems to support the notion that demand is more than sufficient to make shareholders of either very happy campers. Mike Doyle

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