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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 122.55

+4.4%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Jim Patterson who wrote (36559)	4/3/1998 3:31:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) of 176387

Jim, since you brought up OXHP I'd like to relate to you my experience with it. I originally posted this on another thread. After reading this I ask you to rethink your response in terms of Dell. Where is the evidence for the parallel that you drew? "I went long OXHP last spring because it looked like a great growth story. In July when they released their second quarter numbers -- quite exceptional -- I began to feel uneasy because the stock was dropping from about $89 to the high 70's. I rationalized this by thinking it was just short-selling that accompanies every rapid grower, but I felt uneasy and began to watch the news much more closely. Straw #1 "Other HMO's were having cost problems, but why not OXHP? The analysts were saying the problems were company specific, but that begged the question. What was different about OXHP? There didn't seem to be anything that I could find. Straw #2 "During the spring and summer there were a number of lawsuits against OXHP based upon its very slow payment rate. Straw #3 "In the early fall a consent decree was entered against OXHP concerning late payments. It was noted that the new accounting system that OXHP was installing was not going in as smoothly as anticipated, but once it was installed things would be a lot smoother. Straw #4 broke the camel's back! "I concluded that OXHP was in fact different from the other HMOs only in that it didn't know what its expenses were, and the erosion in their cash position was very telling. I exited the stock in the beginning of October and began to warn people about the potential danger on the OXHP thread. "After they dropped from $70 to $29 I continued to warn people because the inescapable conclusion is that their numbers are still not to be trusted. Given that inescapable fact, using potentially bogus numbers in the best of models will not yield reliable results. The risk is just too high! Until there is a thoroughgoing audit there are simply too many uncertainties surrounding this company. Caveat emptor: GIGO." Regards, Paul

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