"...saw more than the average kid on the street."
I've seen quite a bit, except for a Big Kahuna, and that may not be too many days, weeks, or months away. Heard today that the US banks are the biggest buyers of the long bond recently ($111 bil. in March I think it was), in an attempt to boost their overall profits for 1998. Second place buyers goes to UK, which passed out Japan in third place. If banks continue to press for bonds, interest rates will go a tad lower (5.4% - 5.6%) IMO. The nature of the global economy will eventually de-fuse the new paradigm philosophy, due to vast number of corporate inter-relationships worldwide. "No country or company is an island", (with apologies.)
Japan is about to experience much economic pain, and perhaps a major economic disaster. When the Chairman of Sony, Norio Ohga says, "The Japanese economy is on the verge of collapsing", that gets my attention in a hurry. I feel the markets attempted to discount **some kind of Asian situation** last fall, (e.g. Korea, Thailand), but Japan is another story altogether. Eventual second half '98 US corporate profit picture will have to be modified downward IMO. US export market could prove to be a major drag. Stock market is most likely 20% above fair or "rational value", and I think that soon-to-be softer corporate profits will have a hard time sustaining those premium values. This is not to say that the longest-running bull market in history, can't also have the biggest blowoff top in history as well, both in terms of elapsed time and size of move. Market used to discount 6 months into the future, but with today's prevailing attitudes, I don't know if it's looking past next Tuesday. I'll *guess* that the market has a 12% upside potential, and a 20-35% downside potential over the next 9 - 12 months as world situations pan out. Before, or when, this bull market is all over, (whenever that is), I am expecting to see a 1.5 billion share day on the NYSE, and possibly a 2.0 billion share day on NASDAQ. That will undoubtedly signal the change, and hence the rush for the exits. |
