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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: nycnpbbkr who wrote (16330)4/4/1998 2:04:00 AM
From: David Fleming  Read Replies (3) of 25960
 
I've been following Cymer and lurking around this thread for quite some time now. I'm long 1k at $28 - should have averaged down but didn't - and finally, my major sphincters are beginning to relax, my fingernails are growing back, my wife is sleeping with me again and I'm beginning to see a speck of light at the end of the tunnel. I thought I would share my thoughts on what may have caused the nice rise in price this week. Mind you, this is purely speculation and based on absolutely nothing other than gut and wishful thinking...

It seems to me that Cymer management has devised a very shrewd plan for getting the stock price back to where it belongs. Last quarter they told analysts to expect a 10 to 15 cent decline in eps for this quarter and most analysts adjusted their estimates for worst case (the consensus is 9 cents I think). I suspect that they (Cymer management) exaggerated things a bit and knew full well that earnings would be no where near this bad. So, knowing that they are going to blow estimates away, they begin buying back stock - lots of it - to build momentum, shake out Friggenstein and his bunch and to get the price up to $25-27 before the 23rd (barring a major market correction). Then come the 23rd they announce 14 cents and POW we break $30 and are closer to where we should be. Much closer than we would have been had they done nothing. Far fetched? Probably. But wouldn't it be nice to be sitting above $30 this time next month?

David
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