Roy...current analyst consensus estimate has Q2 at 15 cents per share. If Apple earns
50 mil that would be about 38 cents per share on a diluted basis. How do you think
AAPL will react if earnings comes in at 253% of consensus estimate?
Ah, of course. I wasn't really looking at it that way. Common sense tells us that if Apple beats consensus estimates, it will do well for the stock. Or I should say, if it beats the "whisper" number. I've wondered where the whisper numbers are published, if anywhere, as I've seen stocks that beat consensus but only met the whisper usually fail to respond positively, post announcement.
I have not doubt that Apple will sell at least 300,000 G3s this quarter, and 350,000 would be outstanding. But Jobs himself stated that he expected to be between those figures for Q2 anyway, so this is a positive. Assuming they've continued to cut costs, I expect we'll see at least 15 cents per share barring any major catastrophe. I think everyone at Apple is acutely aware of how important that showing a decent profit for a second consecutive quarter is. If they don't, the press will once again be all over Apple, sounding the death knell and calling for Jobs' head. It would be a huge blow to consumer confidence as well, which Apple can ill afford to take lightly at this point in the game. |
