We are all waiting for it. I suspect it (the BK) will come when many of us can't stand it any more and start buying KO, AOL, YHOO, GE, MSFT etc. By the Fed model we are 21% overvalued, In '87 it got as much as 31% overvalued . We could still have a 10% or more run in the S&P from here. How far can we go? It seems we may be heading down the road of Japan several years ago. As our long bond goes down, stocks go up and up and up. At some point bond yields just physically can't go down any more and with inflation dead, then earnings stall, as they already have, and the only option is for the market to stagnate or fall. Unless we have a liquidity driven bubble.
We are already on a bubble but this may just the beginning. Many, many people are holding a lot of cash and overseas folks are looking to put their money in here. The bears will all have to capitulate and dump our cash into the market before we finally top.
So, in the interest of speeding up the arrival of the BK, please everyone start buying SPY, DIA,AOL, GE, YHOO, etc for one big final blowoff of about 15-20% more upside, then we will all get out in the nick of time and watch the crash.
Karl |
