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Technology Stocks : Orckit (ORCT)

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To: bill c. who wrote ()	4/4/1998 11:15:00 AM
From: savolainen	Read Replies (2) of 1998

[sonet] hi bill from following this stuff am getting an education.. :) appreciate your detailed comments re the current situation for a central office... guess i think the window of opportunity for fujitsu (and therefore for orckit) in n. america... is the rather significant ramping up of fiberoptics... as you point out fujitsu is at a great disadvantage competing against the installed base of lucent and nortel co equipment... but their chances look much better when the context shifts to sonet where they the leading provider (47% market share in 97) of such fiber-optic equipment (to the regional Bell operating companies) fwiw... the historical context is kind of interesting: in the not too distant past (70's) the central office market was at&t's alone... nortel took about 1/2 of that in the 80's when digital switching came along... when at&t was caught flat footed... fujitsu tried to make use the same opportunity but didn't get very far and abandoned their efforts.. seems their failure was due partially to product... partially to cultural bias ... and partially to lack of usa based presence (including us based software support) fujitsu has since regrouped and since the late 80's has been making some headway... and if the recent $500 million bel contract is any indication, they have learned at least some of their lessons well... am sort of expecting sonet/onu (optical network unit) xdsl integration to be a big deal for at least a portion of next generation xdsl equipment... think any xdsl marketshare that fujitsu can pick up in the usa is a plus... and their chances are sounding better by the day... :) recently noticed that besides other connections.... fujitsu bought gte's pbx operations in 87... lu will get theirs and wstl seems to be in tight there, but you know much more about that than i best wishes s

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