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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 255.49

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To: Clarksterh who wrote (18533)	4/4/1998 5:54:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Clark: Aki's argument re Japan seems to be one of total financial collapse which has not been factored into the market. Well, no disagreement there although most do not believe that Japan is going down the tubes. Armageddon has not been discounted. But a couple of facts. Capital spending on factory gear by Japan's chipmakers has been flat since 1995. Japan spent $7.3B last year on factory equipment in 1997 down from $7.9B in both 1995 and 1996. I have read estimates that Japanese companies will cut capital spending from 10% to 20% in 1998. Such decreases in spending should already be in the market. In the meantime, since January, the semi-equipment group has made higher-lows and higher-highs in its climb up the wall of worry. I understand now that the Japanese chip companies are going to announce fiscal results for the year ending March, 1998 sometime during April and that we should get a glimpse of their cape ex plans at that time. In the meantime, while there are Japanese problems Europe looks promising: semi.org

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