I am new to this thread but not to this problem. I have been tracking this problem for almost 2 years...long before it was fashionable. I can add nothing constructive to the discussion of individual stocks. Whether any given company prospers as a result of the Y2K fix is dependent on multiple variables....product, approach, management, etc. What I can add is a certitude that the Y2K problem is real, immense, and not amenable to any silver bullet solution. Here is what I know to be true:
1) That there are billions of lines of code extent in the world.
2) That this code is written in 100's of languages, many of which
are no longer supported.
3) That this code is poorly documented.
4) That there are insufficient technical resources available
(even given an orderly market place) to find, inventory, analyze,
fix, test, and integrate these billions of lines of code within
the next three years.
5) That the excess computing capacity necessary to accomplish #4
above does not currently exist.
6) That #1 through #5 above does not take into consideration issues
concerning standardization of fix(es), retrofitting of archieved
data and databases, integration and synchronization of proposed
fixes or 12's of other technical issues too arcane to be of any
real value in this forum.
All of the above can and should be verified independently. Spend some time talking with some senior systems analysts who have spent the better part of a year of their life leading a design/develop/build team for one small/medium application and then consider their comments multiplied million and millions of times. I find the discussion of companies who may or may not prosper by the Y2K problem interesting and occasionaly illuminating. What I find incredibly frustrating and frightening is that with just over three years left there are folks still denying the existence of the problem or dismissing its scale or importance.
I know from nothing shorts or longs, options, puts, calls.
I do know that to the extent and degree that government and corporate America are allowed / encouraged to put off dealing with the problem, the problem grows in complexity and the lieklyhood of a rational fix without a meltdown diminishes. It takes every optimistic bone in my body not to lose faith that WE will fix this problem. While I think it is everyone's right to determine how best to deal with this issue for themselves and to act accordingly I wonder if we are not approaching a point where we should begin to think of this problem as a community and recognize that it will benefit a precious few if our dependence on computers and the prosperity and growth that they have generated causes our system and systems to fail.
For what it is worth....
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