Great stock it is!
I found it from Dataquest's Monday report back a in early Oct. citing
that Cymer occupies 75% of the DUV market and the market is growing at
80% per year for the next 5 years. Technologically speaking, Excimer
laser got no competition at 0.35u - 0.25u market. E-Beam, X-Ray won't
come into play for at least 7 years conservatively speaking. They are
not required until geometry hit sub-0.1u which is far and away. For
these reasons, the top 3 stepper makers, Nikon, Cannon and ASM Litho each owns Cymer by 3.3%. If we look at its competitions, there are only two of them sharing the 20% or so market, European based Lambda-Physik and Japan based Komatsu, Ltd. This is interesting, Nikon
and Cannon both Japanese company, but they did not choose Komatsu, while Dutch company ASM also picked Cymer over Lambda-Physik. It shows
me one sign, Cymer is the technological leader,sound and solid.
As for earnings, among all the estimations for 1996, Morgan tops at $0.40, with Needham at $0.39 and Montgomery at $0.36 with a buy rating and target $30. But Cymer has made $0.30 for the first three quarters, if this earning continues, I see Q4 easily hits $0.25, which
makes its 1996 earning at $0.55. The avg earning est from the three (MS,Needham and Montgomery) is $0.38. Assume their avg whisper number is $0.45/sh, if $0.45/sh justifies a target of $30, with the same PE for $0.55/sh will push it to at least $37. |
