Bob - Die shrinks will require new lithography tools, better CMP, better test equipt.
Agreed, but the question is what else will they require. Many people on this board, and even some analysts, seem to think that that is all die shrinks will ever involve. This is categorically NOT SO. The reasoning is as follows:
1) Company builds brand new 0.5u plant with strippers, mask generation, deposition, steppers, furnaces, ... .
2) 1.25 years later they do a die shrink to 0.35u. For this they need only add a new stepper and mask equipment. Their other equipment is good enough, if not exactly state-of-the-art. So they order a little equipment.
3) 2.5 years later they shrink to 0.25u. Now they need to replace their masking equipment and they need to replace a furnace (a random example) and add a CMP device. Everything else will suffice, but it is getting iffy.
4) 3.75 years later they decide to go to 0.18u. Their original equipment no longer cuts the mustard. They have to replace just about everything.
The question is, where on this cycle are we? I suspect that last year we were around 2 or 3 and now we are moving into 4. But I don't really know. I haven't seen any good statistics on it. So my estimate of being near stage 4 is based on the fact that the last major build cycle was in '94 and '95 and the lifetime of a fab is around 4 years. Anyone have any better data?
Clark |
