Ralphie ,
It's great to know that you're having fun!
Rev from NC is old news. It's a big mistake to hold on to puts based
on rev from NC. Anybody who is beating on this issue is nonsense, imo.
It's a great academic topic to discuss, but no substance to investment
because it never fetched up meaningful $$$ in the past. Most of all,
it's way too early to decide who's winning in this war btn Java vs pc.
Trust me, this is not black and white issue. Pure java & PC, both will
be with us for decades until we come out with totally different animals.
Revolution in tech has just started, give them time to grow. It won't
be either this one or the other situation.
Finacially last thu. meeeting has some bearings because traditionally
4th qr is the strongest one. So there was a dampenning effect a little
bit for short term. But you and I are looking beyond that. Jun, July
and Aug will affect our sep 18th options.
This is from wsj on Apr 3:
The company's fiscal fourth quarter ends in May. Oracle last year began
reorganizing its sales force to simplify its structure and to create product
specialists. The revamp has disrupted the company's interactions with
customers and contributed to weak sales in the fiscal second quarter but
analysts have kept their earnings estimates for the fourth quarter largely
untouched.
This is the key for us. There'll be minor up/down swings for it was
overbought based on expectations for the strongest qr. But Larry is
in charge now. We all know he's taking this down turn as personal
insult. 8^) Him and his ego! What an ego maniac! But that's part of
our business nature. I love it.
You'll have at least two great chances to unload your puts:
Just before Jun earnings report and end of July during tech dips.
I'm saving some 2nd half 98 puts to sell during that time for more
premium.)
IMO, I have greater chances with my naked puts: Time is on my side.
(In general, companies try hard to improve their business. ) Larry's
huge ego is on my side. From end of Aug, tech rally'll kick in till
Sep 18th. Most of all, ORCL takes care of share holders unlike
lots of other tech companies. So I prefer to sell ORCL puts. As
long as both of us are nimble, we'll do fine, imo. Best luck with
your puts!
ps:
1. Lu is ripe to short. What's your take?
2. ATML is getting ready to jump. Earnings are coming out on Th.
So there'll be some short term up swing. Semi commodity will do
well for the second half of 98. (Buy semi commodity stocks when
pe is the highest and dump it when pe is the lowest.)
take care,
BPP(Bipin's partner)
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