Janski,
<<from an air of vindication to doubt and caution that I've been chastised for just a few months ago.>>
In my case at least, there have been several fundamental changes that have made me MUCH more cautious.
Obviously, the loss of Sun as a potential OEM was a major development. Even if it was a long shot, which I don't believe by the way, it was still the first time that Ancor's MKII was able to compete head-to-head with the competition in an area of the Fibre Channel market that the MKII was DESIGNED TO COMPETE IN. Evidently, its technical superiority was not enough to convince Sun to ignore the political ties. Whether they end up using Brocade, or develop a switch in-house is irrelevant at this point. Although I still think the Fibre Channel market will be huge, and that Ancor will likely get their share, they won't be getting Sun.
Although related to Sun, another reason I'm more cautious is based on the apparent fact that Sun was willing to wait for Brocade (or whoever) to implement Arbitrated Loop. That seems to indicate that their shipping schedules have slipped somewhat. If that slippage carries over into the other OEM possibilities, Ancor could have another rough quarter or so. I really was expecting to see some major OEM announcements from either Ancor or Brocade in Q1, and they didn't materialize. (The ANCR press release only said that they weren't getting the OEM deal, it didn't indicate who was getting it.)
DOW 9000, the NASDAQ and S&P setting new records. At some point, there will be some bad news that will rock the market. I have to believe that ANCR will be affected, along with most other stocks. I was MUCH more comfortable with Ancor's valuation when the overall market didn't have so much downside potential.
Don't get me wrong. I still believe that Ancor will succeed, but I think the risks are substantially higher now than they were before the Sun announcement.
Craig |
