Year 2000 Costs - A logical fallacy?
I think there is a major fallacy encountered when everyone attempts to derive the costs of conversion and the benefits that will accrue to the conversion companies. At some point, probably in 1988, but maybe even earlier, most companies are going to hit the 'point of no conversion', that is, there will not be enough time to examine, change, retest, and reintegrate their existing systems, however much money and resources they are willing to expend.
( 9 women can't have a baby in 1 month!)
They will therefore have no alternative but to buy 'off the shelf' packages from the likes of SAP, ORACLE, etc.
It may also be cheaper this way, as the costs of conversion continue to skyrocket.
I can speak from personal experience here. One of my customers has just estimated the cost of conversion for one of their major legacy systems to be $60M. For this, they get the same old system that can now handle 4 digit dates. Or, for $40M, they can have a brand new, state of the art solution. Which would you choose?
I think I am going to put my money where my mouth is and go with the likes of Oracle for my long term holdings....
Any comments? Any suggestions for other companies that will benefit in this way?
Joe Cittern |
