Scott, I'm basically reading between the lines on psoriasis.
In the company's 10-K, there is a good discussion of all of the company's ongoing trials. Basically, they said that their psoriasis indication didn't really work in whatever form they were testing (I assume injection), and that they were going to try it as a topical formation. They didn't explicitly say that the psoriasis drug wasn't working, but you don't change your introduction method in mid-trial for no reason.
Perhaps the topical solution will be better and patients will like it better. In any case, it sets back that drug indication by several years ( I doubt they'll have to re-do a Phase 1, but they definitely will be restarting a Phase 2).
I'm frankly a little annoyed at the way Isis discussing failed drugs. They buried the news on the warts drug, they buried it on the AIDS drug, and they seem to have buried it on the psoriasis drug. Now, I'll be the first to point out that the info. is there if you look for it, but you have to look for it.
I've invested in other biotechs where the companies openly discussed successes and failures with almost equal fervor (obviously, the successes were announced with the bells, trumpets, and parades and the failures weren't). It would be nice if Isis managment would a little more forthcoming. Experienced biotech investors know that 100% success rates are about as likely as unicorns and fire-breathing dragons, so there shouldn't be a fear of over-reaction. I actually wonder if Isis' reticence (sp?) to discuss problems might be keeping the stock down -- the mgmt won't discuss bad news, so the market is giving them an "unknown bad news" discount.
Scott, this was probably a far more comprehensive (and rambling) answer than you wanted, but I hope I answered your question(s).
sds |
