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Technology Stocks : PC Sector Round Table
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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (235)4/6/1998 1:56:00 PM
From: LK2  Read Replies (2) of 2025
 
>>Andy Neff of Bear Stearns quotes Commerce Department numbers for computer orders in his "Computer Week in Preview".<<
The numbers quoted for percentage increase in sales (dollars, not units) for Dec, Jan and Feb sound amazingly bullish.
December + 3.5 %
January +13.3%
February +17.9%

I don't want to sound like an idiot. But wouldn't the Commerce Department be a poor source of data for PC sales, verus other sources that should be available to major brokerage analysts?

Also, the data seems to be completely opposite to what has been reported recently from the box makers (CPQ, etc).

Also, the data doesn't seem to fit with the poor numbers that were reported by CPU (Comp USA), which just took a big hit in their stock price because profits were getting squeezed by the lower margins caused by the drop in Average Selling Price for PCs. The number of units sold at CPU is not increasing fast enough to make up for the drop in Average Selling Price.

It just seems hard to believe the Commerce Department numbers. Could you post a link to the Andy Neff report, or to a source that will show more clearly exactly what the Commerce Department is talking about?

If the numbers are accurate, and if they actually mean what they seem to imply, the computer stocks should zoom. But how and why would the Commerce Department get this information before commercial sources that specialize in this information?

Regards,
Larry
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