Sold my LU to buy ERICY on Friday. My thoughts are, Lucent, while a core holding in telecom equipment, is very overbought short term and is due to correct and consolidate. I don't know how low or how long the consolidation will be, but it is certainly due if the stock will continue as a sound long term investment. I purchased LU recently, at $95 presplit, and sold it at $71 postsplit for a 50% gain. The reason I bought LU at $95, was that I knew the company was a leader in it's industry, but it had not made any serious price progress since making a high of $90 3/4 in July '97. When LU finally broke out of it's 6 month trading range, it was an obvious buy. If you look at the ERICY chart, you will see, like Lucent of old, ERICY just made it's first meaningful new high in 6 months. Now IMO ERICY becomes the obvious buy and LU, overbought becomes the logical sell. Both ERICY and LU have similar earnings records, and while I rather own LU the company long term, I feel ERICY the stock offers a much more compelling valuation until LU can properly consolidate.
Good Luck,
Goolie |
