I challenge you to find find something thats NOT overvalued right
now using the traditional measurements for value. I'll bet chances
are pretty good they will be companies not many of us are interested
in buying.
No challenge. You are correct sir, everything is overvalued.
I own 11 stocks right now and follow a dozen others. Almost without
exception people on the msg boards that follow them are screaming
"overvalued". And you know what, they've been saying it for three
or four years now. We are simply going to have to adjust our concept
of value.
This bull is just NOT going to stop running. In spite of the chicken
littles out there the sky is NOT going to fall. Sure we'll see some
pull backs like last fall but unless World War III breaks out they
won't last long. If Slick Willie and the Far East couldn't make
the market crash nothing short of a major war will.
Hmmm.... You know I sold in 87 around May and June becasue of this very attitude. Might be time to do so again. Companies that can't sustain earnings growth to match there stock valuation will fall back to Earth!!
Riddle me this, what war was waging in 1929 or 1987?? Market actually did quite well during WWII and Viet Nam? Even the Cold War did well, so what does war have to do with it?? SKY falling, buy SKY!!
Am I bullish, you bet your sweet bippie. As long as this economy is
left alone to perform the way it has we'll be just fine. Money is
pouring into the market and its not going to stop. Why?
1. More and more companies are getting out of the pension business
and turning their retirement plans into 401k plans. New ones are
starting all the time in small companies. Most only have mutual
funds to choose from.
2. An army of baby boomers like me are figuring out we don't have
enough money saved for that veranda in the sun and are saving
very aggressively.
3. Generation X feels they have no hope to see a nickel from Social
Security and are saving like no other twentysomething generation
before them.
4. Money from troubled economies is coming into the country looking
for a safe haven.
The economy will have many factors tugging at it that will be it's natural process of cycles. Dollar rise is a concern, as it eats into companies competitive advantage with it's produicts costing hihger in overseas markets. Whether you care to agre, but this economy is fueled by easying regulation of the export of technology due to the end of the Cold War and a very weak dollar.
Money from troubled economies, looking for a safe haven?? What happens when that trouble economy beacons that money back?? What happens when the merger mania comes to an end when the cost is too high? As to the MM and 401K, that is the problem. I certainly don't feel comfortable with my money exposed to wild speculation. Look at the Iomega's, Netscape, Prestek of just a couple of years ago, that is where LU is right now, IMO. Your only point that I agree with is the notion of money chasing securities, but it is without rhyme or reason. Got to own , so I can get 30% or higher returns per annum is a fools game; especially when traditional long term returns are more in the 10-15% range. You are now broaching a 4th year of +30% gains.
Ditto on tightening up the stops or just getting out of the nosebleeders for now. |
