I shorted MOT today with every penny I got for the following reasons:
1)Cellular Phone sector is not doing well. MOT misjudged the direction of celluar phone sector, 1) they still hold too much of analog phone inventory, 2) too many different digital technologies. They have not produced enough equipment for the right digital band because there are too many different technologies: PCS vs GSM vs CDMA, etc. 3) Competition from over sea. Korean especially are dump their phone at a pretty low price.
2)Decline growth in pager market. Motorola is still the king of pagers, but again competition is eroding their market share.
3)Decline in semi sector. Motorola celluar is Motorola semi's biggest customer. Slow sales in phone and pagers means slow growth in semi division. Over sea customer are not buying as much from Motrola because dollar is too strong, and slow growth in Asian market means less demands for semiconductor.
4)Large over head. I think the single biggest expense for Motorola is their fabs. They have fabs all over the world, and also here in United States. These fabs can easily costing over 1 billion dollar each. When these factories are not making wafers, it is eating Motorola's bottom line.
I was heart broken when I hear the $.30 earning, but quickly celebrate with joy when I hear the second quarter earning.
Looking at the day chart, 52 might be a good support, the next leave is 50 if you draw a line across previous lows. After that, who knows. But if you want to make up your lost quicker, I think shorting INTC might not be a bad idea. I'm going to analyze AMD tonight.
Just my 2 cents of opinion..
David |
