Hi, Vincent. I absolutely agree with you about long term expectation for AKLM. By later this year, we will see Turok2 and QBC 1999. For the short term, Acclaim's other games are certainly disappointing. Acclaim should concentrate on 1+1/2 hot games per quarter to maintain turnaround trend. In Q1, as we know, QBC + X-G guaranteed Acclaim's $96 million revenue and a net profits for the first time in two years. Also, as we know, there should be no impacts from Turok and QBC in Q3 since Acclaim didn't find list in top 20 hot games in both January and February. Majority of the revenue in Q2 was from December sales of QBC and Turok. Yahoo board had a figure of Acclaim's games on Dec. and Jan as shown below:
According to NPD
This list does not include Feb 98, but it should still give you a good idea if where we stand.
Riven
December -- (PSX) 28,325 units (ARP - $54.70)
January -- (PSX) 24,243 units (ARP - $51.28)
QBC 98
December -- (N64) 429,030 units (ARP - $61.03)
January -- (N64) 54,741 units (ARP - $61.24)
Extreme G
December -- (N64) 191,729 units (ARP - $61.28)
January -- (N64) 30,693 units (ARP - $61.58)
Turok
December -- (N64) 134,063 units (ARP - $60.69)
January -- (N64) 36,162 units (ARP - $54.35)
IMHO, not necessary to sell since Q4 will be safely guarded by Turok2 and bright. In a short term, I cannot find reason for AKLM to go lower than 6 except some new bad news but, in the same time, cannot find reason for AKLM to go higher than 8 except some new positive news.
For tomorrow, the price will depend on how many traders expected the report better and bought some in the last couple days and how many others (who dumped AKLM from 7 5/8 to 6 1/4 in last week) expected the report worse. The former will likely dump and the latter will likely to buy back.
Good luck to you.
JJ |
