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Strategies & Market Trends : Best Option Strategies and Option Insight

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To: donald sew who wrote (167)	4/6/1998 9:18:00 PM
From: Getcher	Read Replies (1) of 245

<< Earnings are now being discounted, so with the liquidity and interest rates where they are - we should still move up. But technically we need a little breather which would actually help further upward movements. >> Don, I agree ... but ... what about the longer term. If we don't recover fully the earnings momentum that the market has discounted as a "small" Asian Interruption, then we have a very very significant problem. Let's say that we start getting 2nd qtr. warnings prevalent with 1st quarter reports ... say its 'rest of the year' warnings ... then our already astronomic P/E's will surely tumble. Bears take over and try to return damaged P/E's to old historical oversold values. This is the pessimistic approach. One thing I have learned from DOW Theory ... Although the indicators are a little late, they are always right ... don't move opposite until confirmed. Especially true when opposite is down and we have more money than ever coming into the market. Don, I heard an interesting tidbit that I have not yet confirmed. Is it true that Japanese are not allowed to invest in overseas markets? Is it true that very soon they will be because of recently enacted Japanese legislation? If true, then we have huge amounts of cash coming our way, and the Nikkei will be walloped ... I don't know and would appreciate your help here. Getcher

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