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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.
AAPL 273.67+0.6%Dec 19 3:59 PM EST

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To: Marc Newman who wrote (10861)4/6/1998 9:37:00 PM
From: Zen Dollar Round  Read Replies (1) of 213177
 
Some of the rumor sites "reported" that earnings would be very good a couple of
times last year and it sure didn't happen. Kind of reminds me of a year ago when
someone (not a legit poster like Phil) was sure that Apple's profit would be great
because of a supposed currency advantage. That didn't happen either.


I definitely don't recall the rumors sites touting profits in this way last year. I remember a few vague references at some of the lower trafficked Mac sites, but nothing like I'm seeing now. So far, at least 3 Mac sites have touted profit numbers from 50-100 million, in addition to Mac The Knife's recent mention in MacWEEK. I think the chances of Apple coming in at lower than expected numbers are almost nil.

For one, by all accounts the G3 Macs are selling like gangbusters.

Two, Apple doesn't have any significant writedowns this quarter that I'm aware of. They aren't laying off employees with expensive severance packages like previous quarters. The discontinuation of the Newton and eMate will have very little effect on the bottom line, by CFO Fred Anderson's admission.

Third, and perhaps most importantly, this is a critical juncture for Apple and its reputation with the media and the public. They show a loss or only weak earnings and the press will once again turn nasty. There will be more demeaning stories about Apple, and the public confidence will be eroded even further . Steve Jobs and company know this, and I'm sure they've gone all out to assure a resounding confirmation that Apple's Q1 success was no anomaly.

That's the way it looks from here...
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