Hi Pal,
1) Market Timing: There's no formula for success that works 100% of the time or even close. I wouldn't exactly consider myself a market timer, per se. Anyway, explaining my investing/trading style would be impossible in writing. Sorry.
2) I don't think Wednesday will be the magic date that people wake up and say, "damn, YHOO is overvalued--I'm selling!" I know a lot of people (analysts, fund managers, etc.), who while publicly acknowledge valuation issues, it is nevertheless not stopping them from owning/buying/recommending the stock privately.
Understand that if they announce a stock split, management is implying that they expect the stock to go up further--or at least that they don't think they'll have anything to say (news announcements, etc.) which will take the stock down. On the other hand, if they don't announce a split, I think that's implying a negative.
And I'm not here to compete with you guys to see who proves to be right after Wednesday's earnings. All I really came here to do is to try to say that basing a short position on YHOO solely based upon traditional valuation means is the wrong methodology. There are many other forces at work here.
3) When I say, "YHOO won't go down until some bad news comes out directly from the company..." I mean go down in some material fashion and starting a downtrend. Today's -3 3/8 is totally insignificant.
4) I've written a couple of other things at Investor which are now archived. Two more stories (the options strategy thing and another) coming later this month.
-Sal |
