Jesse Livermore,
For a legendary tape reader, you sure know a lot about a company's fundamentals <lol>.
On a more serious note, I would like to ask you regarding two points from your last post:
1. ViruSweep is the top antiviral software and will garner market share inevitably.
Please explain your source that substantiates the claim that ViruSweep is "the top antiviral software."
Up to now, my perusal of various computer/software shops in two states (sorry I didn't catch the others) has always led me to believe that Dr. Solomon's Anti-Virus, McAfee's ViruScan, and Norton's Anti-Virus programs have been the top sellers in their markets. The three seem to repeatedly show statistics explaining the superiority of one product over the other. Nowhere do I even see a mention of ViruSweep, hence my inquiry as to your claims.
2. CleanSweep is the top uninstaller and will increase market share.
Again, I ask for your sources that substantiate this claim. I have not seen actual numbers, but from a consumer perspective, I would think that Norton's Uninstaller has a more significant presence than Clean Sweep. Plus, I'm seeing more of this one program that could be a double for a Tide detergent. I don't think that was CleanSweep, but please correct me if I'm wrong.
One additional factor that must be considered is the importance of coming to market first. Quoting from Philip Fisher's Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits:
"...There is a saying in the pharmaceutical industry that, when a truly worthwhile new drug is created, the company that gets in first takes and holds 60 percent of the market, thereby making by far the bulk of the profits. The next company to introduce a competitive version of the same product gets perhaps 25 percent of the market and makes moderate profits. The next three companies to arrive divide perhaps 10 percent to 15 percent of the market and earn meager profits. Any further entrants usually find themselves in a quite unhappy position.
A trend toward the substitution of generic for trade names may or may not upset these ratios, and in any case there cannot be said to be an exact formula applicable to other industries; nevertheless, the concept behind them should be kept in mind when an investor attempts to appraise which companies have a natural advantage in regard to profitability and which do not..."
If the top three are already entrenched, then it would appear that CleanSweep has quite an uphill market-share battle to fight.
I look forward to your response.
Regards,
Rainier |
