RE: I would argue that it will slow the semi companies' advance to new equipment/smaller architectures.
My reasoning is this. 1) As cheaper PCs create greater market penetration, they create tremendous margin pressure. 2) In order to combat margin pressure the Intels of the world pump more volume. 3) They will also try to stretch any given processor's market life as long as possible. Therefore that means a slower advance toward smaller
architectures.
1. Yes, margin pressure which requires manufacturing efficiencies be improved in the form of more dice per wafer acheived through shrinks.
2. You have two options for higher volumes. Shrinks and 300mm wafer sizes. The former benefits the 0.25um companies and the latter would benefit the entire industry.
3. Um, stretching the life of processors in a time of increasing competition? The industry doesn't work that way. The increased competition in MPUs has accelerated every company's move to more advanced processes. We've seen a contraction in process generation lifetimes. Intel which introduced 0.25um this past fall is introducing 0.18 at the end of this year, AMD started on 0.35 in '97 and is moving to 0.25 one year later, and National which hasn't begun manufacturing at South Portland on 0.25 is talking about 0.18 by the middle of next year. This is NOT a slowdown in Moore's Law.
Again, we're witnessing an acceleration in the move to more advanced processes.
Also, have you considered what a reduction in MPU prices, PCs on a chip, and ultimately PC/information appliance prices mean for unit volumes and ultimately DRAM consumption? Do 100M units using 40MB on average consume more DRAM than 300M units using 20MB to 30MB on average?
RE: NYCNPBBKR comment: Rumor has it that Cymer is going to beat earnings estimates this report but will warn on the next 2 quarter's earnings.
I expect them to beat estimates this quarter and so do a lot of other people on the thread. Next two quarters? Well, I hear there's some kind of trouble in Asia or something <G>, so a flat quarter or two would not be a surprise. |
