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Technology Stocks : Intersolv News
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To: PCSS who wrote (781)4/7/1998 11:38:00 AM
From: Arrow Hd.   of 1069
 
I think the recaps of the CC mirror my thoughts on a longer term
basis. One of my associates, a non-technology type, listened in too
but came away with the same conclusions mirrored in the Volpe report
which when all was said still lowered earnings. ISLI was talking at
one time of 75 to 85 cents for 98. Now it will take the upper end
of the 4th Quarter estimate to come in at the lower end of their
earlier more objective view. That along with MCI and a somewhat
reserved 1Q 99 outlook took away any April momentum that could have
been built up. So I am thinking in terms of a second half 99 run to
the 25-26 area and would be thrilled to see it break out above 19
again by early May. What happens is short term money rotates
especially with the Y2K index getting hit and VIAS has not quantified
to my knowledge their announced shortfall of street estimates so this
unknown weighs more heavily than normal. I hope now that the CC is
concluded the MCI deal will be finalized. It is actually good news
that ISLI was not tempted to rush the MCI deal to have it available
for the CC. It would be an MCI negotiating ploy to stall for more
favorable terms using the upcoming CC as leverage knowing ISLI would
want to be able to announce it on the CC. The fact that ISLI did not
crater to this temptation is positive. But I am still concerned about
this quarter and how they will handle revenue recognition now that
they have had this conservative CC. Also, these partnerships have
start up expenses such as training, joint marketing, etc. which will
hit the fiscal 1Q 99. So I am back to the second half 99 as the time
line for significant share appreciation. Sorry to sound a
disheartening tune. Maybe the fact that I am preparing and filing
fourteen different tax returns today is causing my negative thinking.
I do think the early sell off was overdone and certainly unwarranted.
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