Thread,
Because of the recent price drop, last night I decided to run some numbers. They aren't estimates, just an analysis to give me an idea of what to expect this Q and for the rest of '98.
I first compared the Mar97Q to the Dec96Q. Because of the Holidays, sales fell 5% from $13.3M to $12.7M, earnings fell 20% from $2.7M to $2.2M.
If we apply these numbers to Mar98Q to Dec97Q, we would have $18M sales with $3.36 earnings. This would be 42% revenue and 53% earnings growth, about the same as reported in the DecQ.
Should results come in at these levels, the Fiscal year revenues would be $57M with $13.2M net earnings. This would put fully diluted earnings at $2.41, weighted average earnings at $2.66. FFO for the year of approximately $16.5M.
Looking forward - Indications are that Kwanasia and Kwanta are operating below capacity because Jetcrown is at full capacity and unable to supply the needs of Kwanasia. The 20 new machines from Toshiba were to be installed in March (this may effect Q) and to be "fully utilized". Apparently this added capacity from Jetcrown will put Kwanasia at full capacity, but insufficient to meet their order potential because they have leased new facilities that should be ready in September.
Considering the amount of cash they have and the the current Asian situation, it's very likely that they are looking at acquisitions. At this point in their operation, I believe an acquisition of a competitor or buying facilities from an OEM would be desirable to not only increase capacity, but to gain new customers. The recent additions of Harmon and V-Tech are a big positives for forward growth.
Considering all of this, I believe an optimist could project growth of revenue, earnings, and dividends in 1998 to be consistent with 1997.
For what it's worth,
Ron
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