David, I'm currently short, so that should give an idea what I think of the stock price.
Basically I think GTW is ahead of itself, driven by analyst's recos and interminable takeover speculation. I would want GTW to prove itself going forward before cutting them any valuation slack. The ALR fold-in seems to be having problems. The country store idea seems ill advised - the hybrid nature could very likely be the worst of both worlds. Discussion of future sales in general and competition could go on for pages so I'll just say - prove it first GTW.
Dan Wells originally thought this quarter would be quite disappointing. I'm not so sure about this now as there were some stats out of the commerce department that showed computer sales increasing at a rising rate. The stats are dirty, but it does make one take notice since it is a turnaround from other data coming out of the trade organs i.e. sales rising but at a declining rate. And GTW hasn't warned yet, although with these masters of PR, I'm not sure that means much as past debacles have demonstrated.
There is a press release out today announcing Teddie and Company moving administration functions out to San Diego. I guess the company is getting spread out enough that such a move is not as bad as if they were only located in Souix Falls, but I don't think it is a positive, from a focus standpoint. I guess focus is where I question GTW - they seem to be running around in all sorts of directions and failing to get one, two or three things done really well before moving on to the next issue.
I will be looking to close my short out prior to earning release, and would refrain from establishing a long position, period. There are more attractive places to put my long money.
Regards, DWW |
