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Non-Tech : Philip Morris - A Stock For Wealth Or Poverty (MO)
MO 59.01+0.5%Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Ralph Bergmann who wrote (1316)4/7/1998 3:27:00 PM
From: Maven  Read Replies (2) of 6439
 
Three bad-news items for Phillip Morris may account for the drop in price.

1. Merrill Lynch downgraded MO to near-term neutral, long-term attractive, from the previous rating of near-term attractive, long-term buy. I interpret this exercise in semantics to mean--hang on to your present holdings but don't add to your position. (Anyone else have a differing reading on this? Please chime in.)

2. The tobacco companies must now turn over 39,000 documents to the Minnesota prosecutors. The Supreme Court refused to block the release.

3. The cigarette companies turned over huge quantities of internal documents to Senator Thomas Bliley, Virginia Republican, and member of the House Commerce Committee.

In light of the fierce battle waged by the tobacco companies to invoke attorney-client privilege and keep these papers secret, we may assume that those engaged in this inquisition and witch-hunt will have a grand time seeking out the most harmful information they can release to the public, to bolster their cases and gain their 15 minutes in the limelight.

Be prepared for months of revelations, disclosures and political posturing in the media, all damaging to the tobacco companies. For those of us LONG on MO, expect a tough time and declining price. Keep the Maalox handy. Is it the end of the world? Not likely. At the point of maximum pessimism, it will be time to BUY.

To identify that point, I'd like to hear from any mavens on this post who work with Technical Analysis, as I do.

Robert S. Sheldon
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