Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (6469)	4/7/1998 4:32:00 PM
From: space cadet	Read Replies (5) of 18691

Hiya Pancho, I love the smell of napalm in the morning. Let's teach some of those generation Xers some respect! Actually it took me quite a while, handicapped as I am and as you are by a Ph.D. in the hard sciences, to learn not to overanalyze the market. There is an excellent interview in this weeks Barrons which all us overeducated stock pickers must read. It's a test of a roomful of people to try to guess the 2/3 point of the average value guessed by the people in the room of a number between 0 and 100. The know-it-all in Barrons guessed 0 and guess what- he was wrong!!! The hardest thing for me to learn was not to predict what the market would do 3 moves later- that is the path to bankruptcy for sure- but what the market will do in its next move. I have a gen X friend and she recently came into a little money. She immediately was deciding whether to buy amzn, yhoo, or aol. That's what she is familiar with and so like Peter Lynch says, that's what she wanted to buy. When you realize that the people controlling the mutual funds are about her age and have about the same knowledge and interest about the market you can then begin to understand why things are going the crazy way we've seen them go the last few years. By waiting till the market has seemingly definitely turned I missed out on shorting stocks yesterday and Friday when they were at their peak. I started shorting today. That's ok, I find it's better to give up a day or two then to start shorting early while these overvalued rockets are still rising. Incidentally my gen-X friend never asked anything even vaguely connected with valuation about those stocks. I don't think she even understands the concept of p/e. In the long run she'll probably end up doing better than you and I but that's life. The powers that be that control this market are convinced that however ugly earnings are this quarter and next by the fall they will be in double digits. As long as they keep to that belief (even if they are absolutely wrong) we are still in a bull market. In short, being right or wrong about earnings or technology or anything else OBJECTIVE about this market is useless. Only thing that counts is whether you made money or not. I can't believe how simple the point is and how long it took me to learn that.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next