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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks
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To: Ploni who wrote (6475)4/7/1998 5:45:00 PM
From: Joey Two-Cents  Read Replies (4) of 18691
 
If you look at the world economy I would say there will be one more
push to 10,000 and then a bear market of epic proportions taking the Dow to 1,000 - 2,000. Look at the World economy today as compared to last year:

1) Around 40% of Japans exports go to the other Asian countries. These
countries have had 70-80% of their wealth vanish. If Japan collapses so does the world.

2) OPEC countries have had 1/2 of their wealth vanish with oil price
decrease. This includes Venezuela and Mexico.

3) South America will come under both competitive pressure from Asia
and speculative pressure.

4) Russia on verge of revolution and civil war may dappen that capitalistic spirit flowing through Eastern Europe.

5) China will devalue to compete with Asia or face civil unrest.

6) Hong Kong will devalue because it's economy is built on RE in a land of poor.

7) These nations will begin to repatriate their funds from our markets sooner or later and the US will have its life line cut.

8)Y2K who knows $ 600B total cost? Bank runs bfore the millenium?

If a bear market arrives now, corporations will try to keep their stock high by buying back shares. Look at INTC. The stock is up over 500% in last 5 years and management is going to buy back 100M
shares. This while insiders are selling their stock. If INTC buys back
100M shares @ $ 72 and in 6 months INTC is trading at $ 40 thats $ 3.2B gone. For the first time in history we have a culture that is so selfish that they would rather bankrupt a company to protect their
stock options then save that company by having reserves for a rainy day. I predict 100's of Billions of $'s (Just like BOJ) will be spent
by corporations to prop up their stocks (without success) this combine with the Y2K cost and slowing economy and rising interest rates will
rock us and stocks to the foundation.
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