Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 252.25

+0.9%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Steve Tauscher who wrote (18620)	4/7/1998 5:54:00 PM
From: Adam Nash	Read Replies (2) of 70976

In fundamentals, you cannot compare US 1990s to Japan 1980s. Japanese P/Es had always been extreme (and still are!) due to the way their system worked. In particular, there was consistent manipulation of prices by the brokerage firms themselves. Japanese tax law makes our tax law seem tame, and it highly controls what type of money can go where, when. There are significant limits on where govt. and private pension funds can place their money. At the same time, I see a real comparison: How many people do you know in this market realistically expect the possibility of the 70s? I mean, 26% drop one year (say, 1999) and 28% the next (say, 2000)? Everyone seems ready for the "10% in one day!" kind of shock, but not the ".5% a week down" type of bear market. We'll see. I've convinced myself that as a net saver, I will keep investing through those types of markets. Has everyone else? Check: berkshirehathaway.com and read Warren Buffet's 1997 letter. I agree 100%.

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