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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)

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To: LoLoLoLita who wrote (6602)	4/7/1998 6:12:00 PM
From: VLAD	Read Replies (2) of 23519

David, I enjoyed your post and agree with most of it. I am still long vivus and will ride this train regardless of the short term price movements. I would like to make a few comments. 1)I am guilty of cheerleading but I also try to support my long position with facts not just opinions. 2)I am guilty of making remarks of gap filling. As I stated before, the majority of stocks which gap up or down do eventually fill the gap. I do think that Vivus will fill the gap but not in a rocket like fashion. Last summer I shorted JBIL the day before earnings (2000 shares at 68 pre-split). The next day JBIL gapped up about 12 points it then ran up as high as 108 and split at about 100. I covered my shorts when it pulled back to 47 post split for a 55k loss. A relative of mine who is big on TA told me "don't worry it will eventually fill the gap". I am glad I did not listen to him because after I got out it ran up as high as 72 and I would have lost all my money and then some. Although he was right (JBIL did back fill the gap and even today it traded below 60 presplit) about gap filling I was more right in the timing (ie the decision to cover for a huge loss was better than I initially thought). 3)Although I am a disgruntled long I still believe that Vivus will recover and prosper. I bought into vivus heavily after the December gap down for several reasons. I will list them if you don't mind. a)I knew that contrary to the short interest propaganda MUSE is an effective drug b)although MUSE is not perfect I think it has and will have it's place in the ED market. c)Looking at the financials, PE, etc...I believed that below $15.00/share was a good value for this company. d)I did consider the short interest and the short agenda as a plus to the stocks future value. At this point in time, I am not concerned with where the share price moves in the short run. If it goes back to the 9's I will not get scared and bail thinking that the world is coming to an end. I am concerned with where the share price will be next fall. Certainly it's frustrating when your stock is stagnating while other securities are flying high and mighty but this is what investing in the market is all about. I learned from past experiences that it is better to hold your out of the money position (doesn't apply to shorting) over time than to take loses and run into another position that may also place you in the same scenario. If Vivus/MUSE does poorly 6 to 9 months from now then I will sell and take my loses. In the mean time I will monitor the ED market with a wait and see approach. I also might add that I felt that Viagra and the lawsuit stigma are only temporary forces which help explain why the share price is as low as it is. I think Viagra will do very well for part of the ED population and MUSE will do well for another part of the ED population. I do not know of any disorder/disease that has only one drug available as a cure. I also do not know of any disorder/disease that has a single drug which works effectively 100% of the time. Regards, VLAD

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