[patience/booster rockets]
greetings piper,
thanks for the straight ahead info... was way off base on my first post... thought you were being disingenuous... (not ingenuous)... for some reason did not take your original comments as being straightforward... please accept my apologies.. you WRITE GOOD... i READ BAD...
thought myself that csco/netspeed would get a shot at gte due to the csco/gte relationship... but felt it might be an uphill battle... from what i've gathered netspeed is still cap with coming dmt motorola based... which at this point doesn't sound like a combination that would be easy to sell for an aggressive schedule on rollout... as a uawg member think gte is looking to ride that bandwagon (dmt)... but could be wrong... (exhibit "a" for counter argument would be us west).... and csco's push into telecom equip might have a ways to go...
don't really know what to think about orctf as a frame relay vs atm solution... believe most of their european stuff is atm based... know that a couple of years ago they were were selected to provide adsl expertise (only xdsl vendor involved) for the european amuse project (advanced multimedia services for residential users) which is atm to the home... other partners in amuse: italtel, siemans, dt, telecom italia and gpt.. each of whom have been (at least) rumored to be involved with orctf in other relationships..... (italtel and orctf jointly developed a dslam for the project) and of course dt is very big into atm... as is fujitsu... when fujitsu/orctf was first announced, press commentary talked about the synergies as atm/xdsl...
think one likely explanation for the frame relay solution (if true) was that it was developed/tailored for gte ... and that this may be behind the greater than anticipated expenses this last qtr attributed in the conference call primarily to "significant increase in r&d costs for the development fast internet product... based on carrier requirements....." orctf prides itself in being flexible and aggressive in delivering customer specific product...
article from todays globes (where did that title come from?) reinforces what was said in the conference call:
"...According to company president Izhak Tamir, the higher-than-expected loss stems primarily from increased development costs. During the first quarter, Orckit invested a great deal of effort in tailoring its ADSL-based products to meet the needs of specific carriers. In addition, Orckit's investment in the DSL fast modem field increased as a result of the company's involvement in trials by telephone service providers in the US and Western Europe... "
globes.co.il
really don't have a good feel for the near term price action in the stock (tho gte could provide a real pop particularly if accompanied by other news, but then again would think after ubs, current price might be a little stronger) ... this is a tough little stock to interpret trading action in ... (9r?)... longer term looks like a safer bet if you believe in management/orctf expertise ... am waiting this one out..
until earnings really start flowing (hopefully towards the end of 98) this is still a story stock and a lot can happen... think risk diminishes with time as the real story (significant earnings) will probably become clear in a 6 mo to 2 year timeframe...
personally have been averaging in for about a year now... my thinking in the last couple of months is that things could break sooner rather than later... and the downside was just having to be patient...
one of the things with orctf is that there are several fronts (adsl/hdsl/vdsl).... two tracks on each front (silicon and equipment)... and many playing fields (usa/ europe/ asia etc)... suppose some (such as author of globe's article) see this this as a negative (lack of focus), but the other side of the coin is booster rockets...
this mo would guess, we will be getting some interesting vdsl news...
april 20-21:The First International Conference on VDSL... harris/orctf silicon due soon.. and let's not forget siemans/orctf vdsl partnership and dt (and others) trialing orctf vdsl ...
and you must have met some finns in your day... a batch of lighthearted, easy going folk eh?.. you nailed me on that one... <G>..
best o luck
s |
