Motorola (MOT) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Motorola (MOT)

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Perry G. who wrote (933)	4/8/1998 12:32:00 AM
From: Perry G.	Read Replies (2) of 3436

MOT still has some work to be down.....although unfortunately for me I don't think most of it will be done prior to the expiration of my once cheap APRIL PUT position... Analyst estimates for 1998 are now being revised down about $1.00...to a range of 1.30 to 1.40 $1.30 times 30 p/e = $39 $1.40 times 30 p/e = $42 I think the 1.30 is still high... 1stQ actual----.23 Mot 2nd Q warning-----.23 or lower That means that to be $1.30....3rd and 4th Q will have to be at least $.84 in total Last year 3rd and 4th quarter were $1.19 Last year 1st and 2nd quarter were $1.15 so this years .46(1ST QUARTER ACTUAL AND 2ND MOT EST.) is 60% lower.... IF YOU lower last years 3rd and 4th quarter by half that ---30%...you would come to an estimate for the 3rd and 4th quarters 1998 of approximately $.84...so .84 plus .46 would come to the analysts $1.30 What happens if you split the difference between the 60% revision for 1st and 2nd Q...and what seems to be the analysts use of 30% revision for the 3rd and 4th quarter....to say a 45% revision .46 (1st Actual and 2nd Q MOT est) plus .66 (which is 45% revision of last years 3rd and 4th quarter of $1.19) = $1.12 Well...get the picture...$1.12 x 30 P/E = $33.6 AND AGAIN why does MOT deserve of 30 P/E.... IF YOU LOWER THE P/E to 25 and use the 1.30, you would have a price of $32.5 I haven't cranked out a table of P/E for the last 10 years for MOT...maybe someone here has.... THAT'S the KEY...WILL THE P/E fall...if so....LOOK OUT BELOW MOT WILL BE A GOOD BUY AGAIN WHEN IT HITS THE MID 30'S..and the key is GOOD buy...not some brokerage analyst recommendation of BUY because of 1X sales...you have to really spin to call a BUY on MOT because of 1X sales...ever heard that valuation concept..especially with falling margins... And if you look at the NASD chart...its screaming UGLY END to PARABOLIC CLIMB FROM SECOND WEEK OF JANUARY 1998

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next