A couple of optimistic counter examples:
<<1) Around 40% of Japans exports go to the other Asian countries. These countries have had 70-80% of their wealth vanish. If Japan collapses so does the world.>>
If Japan crumbles, we will have one less competitor.
In Japan's case, this is a positive because all it does
is export. Open markets will prevail. A possible greater
risk is that all the Asian countries owe $$ to Japan, and
will not be able to pay back. So, more Japanese banks
go bust. I see this as a positive - puts Japan back into
the open market formula <==> capitalism.
<<2) OPEC countries have had 1/2 of their wealth vanish with oil price decrease. This includes Venezuela and Mexico.>>
Low oil prices are good for the world. Lowers production
costs. Mexico has more to its economy than oil.
But if it doesn't, as some of the Arab oil exporters, then
they will be forced to be a more productive country. Another
words, after 20+ years, these countries should have
invested their wealth properly, but haven't, so they
deserve their lot.
<<3) South America will come under both competitive pressure
from Asia and speculative pressure>>
Are you sure this isn't just your opinion? Brazil's
holding up, last I saw. They have been learning from
the E.Asian lessons.
<<4) Russia on verge of revolution and civil war may dappen that capitalistic spirit flowing through Eastern Europe.>>
Even if this is true, it won't matter to Wall Street or
any other market. Russia is like a completely beat up
stock - no earnings expectations.
<<5) China will devalue to compete with Asia or face civil
unrest.>>
The destabilization of a Chinese devaluation is
my personal worry. But, they are playing the world
economic game very well lately. If they keep things
together, they will look like heroes after Asia recovers.
So, it's very much in their interest to not devalue.
And, of all the countries, it's easiest for them to do
so because civil unrest in communist countries can reach
much greater intensity than in a free democratic society.
Another words, it's easier for China to push it's
undemocratic economic policy on its citizens than in
other freer countries.
<<6) Hong Kong will devalue because it's economy is built on RE in a land of poor.>>
Hong Kong will hold tight, partly because it has much strength,
and partly because it's fortunes are tied to China.
HK is not a poor country. RE is not a huge a problem. It's
only a problem because economy is slowing down, not a speculative
RE bubble as in Japan.
(If they crack, I don't want to imagine what will be the
result. - another reason they'll stay solid. HK is the
'real Japan' of E.Asia.)
<<7) These nations will begin to repatriate their funds from our markets sooner or later and the US will have its life line cut.>>
For most of these nations, the US $ is their life line, not
the other way around. Japan is not going to collapse, if
for no other reason, than they have a huge amount of $$.
Though it might hurt a lot, they can spend their way
out of their problems....
<<8)Y2K who knows $ 600B total cost? Bank runs bfore the
millenium?>>
To much hype on the y2k problem. I think I heard that
some European countries will have national holidays after
Jan 1 (except for computer programmers, I'm sure). So,
much of the world will get a nice rest.
My 2cents worth. Just killing time tonight.
Joe |
