Hi Amadeo,
You are correct. We should state what we mean by recovery. Perhaps a better wording would be 'bounce off the lows' or something like that.
Now, as to your points:
>>>> 1) Last time Amati went down with entire sector. Even though today's decline was a part of a general Technology decline notice a BIG difference. In July Amati had a press release saying that they "Don't know why the thing drops" and now they are telling us that not only they know why it drops but "Don't expect any miracles for a while". This is a stunning, unprecedented reversal.
First of all Amati's price decline last time started in June when tech stocks were enjoying their highs. By the time we had the tech massacre in July, Amati was already in the low teens. So, you can't say it was part of the general tech decline. At the time the company did a press release (right or wrong) because they were getting zillions of phone calls from investors. I don't think the situation is the same now. Now they are telling us NOTHING NEW. The quotes from that interview (which I am sure was taken somewhat out of context) are things investors (WS investors) have heard before. Therefore, I won't agree there is a reversal from Amati on this topic at all. Their previous comment was in response to stock price action question. Today's quotes are in response to their business in general. Two very different situations. If investors are dumb, that's not Amati's fault!
>>>>> 2)Many people would not like to ride the wave twice.
People who call themselves investors (vs traders) and don't like to ride waves either should be traders or shouldn't be in the market at all. If they want to be in the market, they should invest in utilities or blue chips, not growth companies.
>>>>> 3)As you mentioned earlier Amati is just a player in the field and by no means is the player. (Kind off reminds me of NC. Suddenly it's not just Oracle but everyone including big guns)
I never imagined Amati would 'own' the ADSL market. But if you are inferring that the ADSL market is a lot more crowded today vs back in the spring, yes that's true.
>>>So if you buy at 12.5 and you "feel" for people being drawn into hype by all king of chats, sticks and candles you should tell them(us) that you are probably looking for gains on a lower scale of single digests, short term.
Again Amadeo, we all have different styles and goals. Short term for me means just a few days and I wouldn't expect miracles indeed in the short term. But if the stock does drop far enough to close the gap from the beginning of August, it will bounce back quickly IMO. Would it get to $36 anytime soon? I don't think so. Would it go back to it's high teens or perhaps low 20s? Yes, I would think it would. How long would it take? I think the high teens would be attainable with the next real tech rally, the low 20s is harder to call in terms of timing and may need some helpful news from the company.
I hope I have answered what you tried to ask. Techie |
