<<Less than 1X Sales...>>
According to Baseline, sales for the prior 12 months are $543Mil. That gives us a PSR of 0.9. But, with orders softening (at least a bit), and EPS forecasts plunging (I saw BA/RS dropped their forecast from 2.05 to .80 for FY98) I don't think we can assume sales will continue to grow. If we head towards ~$400M this year (with Q1 at $123M, the remaining Q's coming in around 100M [Q3 lower for sure]), then a PSR of 1 gives a price of ~$17. In addition, the historical minimum price/book is 1.1 (1996) and we're at 1.6 now. Given EPS of .80 and P/E of 20, all of this suggests that bottom fishers look for an entry point in the neighborhood of 16 to 17: or 20% - 25% below where we are now. This a conservative analysis, and my gut says we are headed much lower this time. I love this company longterm, but the volatility is such that it's great for trading, and I've gone long and short twice in the last 12 months. Short now (July 20's)
On the other hand, the market has been remarkably immune to fundamentals...
Any ideas on who the other 4 co's are that Intel cancelled orders on?
A longtime lurker. |
