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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

ORCL 197.62

+1.2%

9:30 AM EST

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To: lml who wrote (6853)	4/8/1998 8:04:00 AM
From: SCourt	Read Replies (1) of 19080

lml - not much change I think Remembering SoundView Group's short-term buy recommendation, I think they had a little over a point upside to ORCL then. That was under much more favorable tech sector conditions at the time. What was really good about yesterday was the fact that it opened and closed at the same price yet had a "long day" (in japanese candlestick terms) below that mark. This is a very bullish sign and confirmation this morning will signify that a bottom has been reached (for now). Even if it's a down day today but in a very short range, that's also a good indication that we're headed probably headed sideways and I'll take that at this point. I'm somewhat confused as to why a 3rd quarter numbers report (relating to Sun) from Reuters hit the wire now that we're well into the 4th quarter. The least they could have done was to release it before the analysts meeting and then maybe we'd be sitting at 29 now. ;-) I have no doubt that the 30's will be reached again but probably in May. I predict a gradual buildup with some heavy profit-taking the last week in May and we'll be sitting around 31 before the report.After the report, we'll see 39 (.99 EPS * 40 P/E) within 3 weeks. More profit-taking will send us back down to 35 (.99 EPS * 35 P/E) unless the license growth number is double digits (causing ALL of the major holds go to buy). To sustain above 40 will require a couple pennies surprise on the next quarterly report with stronger than expected forward-looking statements by Lane. Oracle has a lot of nervous profit-takers and this is the key limiting factor to a quicker and more lasting rise. Microsoft's release of Windows 98 and a great earnings report from them will bring the money back into the sector to help fuel Oracle's climb. Compaq and HP gaining some strength by the end of the summer would be great too. Finally, it wouldn't hurt if the Wall Street Journal could have some nice things to say about Oracle the first week in June. SCourt

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