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Technology Stocks : CSCO - Reason To Buy ??
CSCO 72.67+1.9%1:05 PM EDT

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To: THOMAS WHARFF who wrote (571)10/29/1996 11:31:00 PM
From: noronha   of 588
 
To: Thomas Wharf
From: Noronha

There was a great little article in Investor's Business Daily on why stocks fall after meeting and often exceeding analyst projections. The scenario works something like this: an analyst comes up with a projection for the quarterly earnings-say 10 cents per share. As the quarter proceeds he may realize the earlier estimate was a bit conservative-maybe instead 12 cents looks doable. However, the analyst(s) don't always change their estimates on paper--they always want companies to at least meet their estimates. If they raised estimates and the company fell short-11 cents-then the institutional clients will go ape shit. As such, due to these pressures they instead alert the clients to the "whisper number" of 12 cents. On earnings day, the company reports 11 cents and gets shot behind the barn because it fell shy of the whisper #. Sometimes the whisper # and # on paper from Frist Call match--but often they don't.
My take on CSCO: earnings not good enough--stock sells off several more points-maybe $54 and then it is a good time to step up to the plate and buy. My two cents.
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