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Technology Stocks : CDCO - CidCo Incorporated
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To: William McDavitt who wrote (12)10/30/1996 12:14:00 AM
From: Miles Rhyne Hoffman, CFA   of 204
 
There's always hope, HOWEVER UNREALISTIC! I'll give you the IMHO "facts":

First let me say that I find a lot of people on the web with thin skin. I even admit to getting ticked off when someone disagrees with me, not because they disagree, but because they are callous about it when they present no basis for their arguement. I am not trying to upset anyone, but these people are arguing from the heart and not from the head. There is no analysis in the head to support the arguement. Here is my "head" arguement:

The 2nd qtr was a negative surprise according to Zacks (41 cents when the Street projected 47). CIDCO also announced that 2nd half EPS estimates would not be met. So you have a negative EPS surprise and "negative EPS estimate momentum" (aka, analysts cutting estimates). These are TWO VERY POWERFUL indicators of future price performance, and both are currently NEGATIVE.

To get to $40 a share by year end would be a 26x "96 PE" and 23x "97 PE" based on current estimates of $1.55 and $1.74 (down from $2.00 & $2.51 before the 2nd qtr announcement). So ya'll are expecting the stock to go to a premium at a time when fundamentals have deteriorated!

Since I'm an owner of the stock at pre-2nd qtr prices, here's to HOPE because my head said take losses long ago but my heart won't listen!

... and thanks for your messages. I use a forum like this to succinctly express my thoughts... now I see why I should sell and move on!
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